Week 6 DFS Convictions and Bedside Bets
Hey guys! Last week was my best week of the season in both DFS and betting. I just want to remind everyone that news is enormous in the NFL, and we need to be paying attention to it all the way up to Sunday morning. Last week, Dalvin Cook was ruled out Sunday morning, making Alexander Mattison a lock-in DFS and leaving opportunities in the betting market. It's only Friday as I am writing this, and we've already had some important news, and I think this will be a big news week which could change everything Sunday morning. So let's go make some money this weekend!
Taylor Heinicke (DK: 5,800) (FD: 7,300)
Taylor Heinicke was my start of the week on the pod for season long, and for much of the same reasons, I love him in DraftKings this week. This game has a 54.5 total, and he gets possibly the best matchup for quarterbacks in this atrocious KC defense. They give up the most DK points to QBs, are 7th in TD passes allowed, and 2nd in rushing TD allowed. I also love Heinicke this week because of the rushing floor he provides. He has gone over 40 rushing yards in back-to-back weeks. This is a must-win game for the Chiefs, and I could see them getting up early, which would put Heinicke in the perfect script for lots come from behind fantasy points. He also has easy stacking partners in Terry McLaurin and Ricky Seals-Jones, and my favorite brings back on the other side is Travis Kelce.
Kareem Hunt (DK: 6,200) (FD: 7,400)
Kareem Hunt is a late pivot in this article. I was going to write up Jonathan Taylor in his matchup against the Texans, but we just got word that Nick Chubb will miss this week. So Kareem Hunt will be in for a massive workload. We've already seen this year a change in role for Hunt with Chubb on the field. It seems the Browns are committed to using him consistently every game, which wasn't the case last year. The Browns are leading the league in rushing attempts with 35 a game, almost 30 coming from Chubb and Hunt every game. Without Chubb, I could see Hunt getting up to 25 carries and at 6,200, which is too cheap on DK. While the Cardinals are giving up many fantasy points to running backs, their underlying rush defense numbers show that they are beatable on the ground. I hope that with other great plays in this range and lots of cheaper running backs this week, Hunt could go lower owned than he should.
Ja'Marr Chase (DK: 6,700) (FD: 7,800)
Every year there is a guy who I just keep playing repeatedly. Ja'Marr Chase is starting to turn into that guy this year. I love his talent, and his explosive ability to take any catch for a touchdown makes him the perfect guy for GPPs. The price is starting to rise, but I still don't think it is cheap enough for a guy who can score 2 TDs any week. He has a QB in Joe Burrow who loves to throw him the deep ball and lets him go get it. He gets a great matchup in the Lions' defense this week and shouldn't be too owned. I am seeing him at less than 10% ownership right now. In every game they have played this year, the Lions have given up over 100 receiving yards to one guy but have only given up 3 touchdowns through the air. I see Chase making it a 6th week of the Lions giving up a 100-yard receiving day but also thinks he gets in the box at least one time, if not two. I also like using D'Andre Swift in an easy secondary stack.
Ricky Seals-Jones Over 3.5 receptions (+102)
RSJ is a guy who I have always thought was talented in the past but never got a real chance to consistently show his stuff. He now has that opportunity, and in his first week without Logan Thomas took full advantage. He had 5 receptions on 9 targets and played virtually every snap. The Chiefs are giving up the most yards and 7th most receptions to tight ends. The WFT is also banged up at the receiver position, which should open more opportunities for Seals-Jones. I really like this over on the receptions because he should have every chance to get 4 receptions.
Darren Waller Over 5.5 receptions (+100)
This is a prop that stood out to me right away as being too low of a number at plus money, but then I went and looked, and Waller hasn't hit this number since week 1, which was very surprising. Since his big game in week 1, he has 5,5,4,4 receptions in those 4 games. On top of this, it isn't but the best matchup, but I still will go ahead and bet this prop. This is more on the gut than anything else. The Raiders have lost two games in a row, and with a new coach, you would think they would try to get the ball to their best player. Instead, I think we see another massive game from Waller where he quickly gets over this prop. So while this prop is a little riskier than I usually like to put here, I still like it.
Najee Harris Anytime TD (+100)
This one is simple for me. I am going to pick on this Seattle run defense all season long. They are one of the worst run defenses in the league and have allowed 5 rushing TDs through 5 games. The Steelers are relying on Harris in both the pass and run game, and I think they do the same here against the Seahawks. We should see a big game from Harris, including at least 1 trip into the end zone on Sunday night.
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