Week 5 DFS Convictions and Bedside Bets
Joe Burrow (DK: 6,100) (FD: 7,000)
One of my favorite quarterbacks to stack this week in a game is Joe Burrow, and I think he will go relatively unowned on DraftKings this week. Right now, Burrow is projecting for less than 5% ownership in a game with a relatively high total of over 50. The Bengals will likely be without Joe Mixon this week which could lead to Burrow throwing the ball a ton. Additionally, they play the Packers this week, who are 12th in fantasy points allowed to QBs. They will also be without their top corner in Jaire Alexander, which makes the matchup even better. If the Bengals do go down early to the Packers, it should lead to the perfect game script for Joe Burrow. I love stacking him up with two of Tyler Boyd, Ja'marr Chase, Tee Higgins, or CJ Uzomah. There's also an easy run back in Davante Adams. My plan as of right now is to have Joe Burrow in single entry build this week.
Laviska Shenault (DK: 4,800) (FD: 5,800)
Laviska Shenault is one of my favorite plays on DraftKings this week. He is just flat-out cheap for the role he will be in now, with DJ Chark being out with a fractured ankle, leaving 8 targets a game for others to replace. We also had a positive coach speak with the Jaguars Offensive Coordinator during the week, saying Shenault will have an increased role with Chark out. The Jags get a Titans defense who has struggled in the passing game. They are giving up the 2nd most fantasy points to WRs over the first 4 weeks. Shenualt is a player who thrives on getting short passes (he has an ADOT of 7.08), which fits DraftKings PPR scoring perfectly. One of my favorite ways to use Shenault this week is in a secondary stack with Derrick Henry, and I will have that correlation across my lineups this week.
Leonard Fournette (DK: 5,200) (FD: 6,400)
Leonard Fournette is not my favorite person to roster in DFS. It does feel like he continually lets me down, whether in DFS or in real life when he played for the Jaguars. But this is just too good of a matchup for him in what looks like a solidified role. Last week Fournette played 80% of snaps, had 20 carries, and received 5 targets. With Gio Bernard out again this week and the Bucs clearly not trusting Ronald Jones, we should project a similar workload for Fournette. This price is just clearly too low for this role. He also plays a Dolphins team that is allowing the 3rd most fantasy points to running backs. Through the first 4 weeks they have allowed Damien Harris, Peyton Barber, and Jonathan Taylor to all go over 100 yards on the ground and have given up 5 rushing touchdowns. Tampa Bay should get out to a quick lead in this game, and if that happens, that should mean we see plenty of Leonard Fournette in the second half to close out the game. Fournette will be popular, but this is a spot I am willing to eat the chalk even in tournaments.
D'Andre Swift Over 33.5 receiving yards (-114)
We have seen a lot of things being said this week about the Detroit Lions running back situation after Jamaal Williams out carried Swift last week. The head coach came out this week and said they are willing to ride the hot hand. But the truth is that Swift played 70% of snaps compared to 30% of snaps for Williams, and Swift is the clear receiving back out of the two. In my opinion, this number is too low for Swift in a game where the Lions should be down and having to pass quite a bit. Outside of last week, Swift has quickly cleared the 34 receiving yards and in two of those games went for 60 receiving yards.
Josh Allen Over 2.5 Passing TD (+145)
I am incredibly excited to watch this Bills/Chiefs game and what makes it better is that it should be a game full of offense with a total of 56.5. The Kansas City defense is a bottom 5 defense in the league, according to PFF. They give up points in bunches to all positions but even more in the passing game. They have given up 7 passing touchdowns through the first 4 weeks. Josh Allen has only thrown for 3 or more touchdowns once this year, but I think he gets it done this week, and I am willing to take my shot this week at plus money.
Stefon Diggs Anytime TD (Even)
This is a bet that obviously correlates with the Josh Allen over 2.5 passing touchdowns prop. Still, I do think one of those Allen touchdown passes is to Stefon Diggs. Diggs only has one touchdown catch on the year, but he should add to that in one of their most important games of the year. In such a big game, I wouldn't be surprised if Allen relies on Diggs, and Diggs has his biggest game to date. I love this bet at even money.