Week 4 DFS Conviction Plays and Bedside Bets
Hey guys! Crazy that we are already on week 4 of the NFL. The first 3 weeks have been just okay for me, and I am looking to finishing off this first month of the season with my first real big week of the year. There are some fun games this week which we can attack in both DFS and betting. This week could be news/injury-driven, so make sure you keep up with the news because one piece of information could change everything Sunday morning. Good luck this week, and let's get that bread! Listen to our most recent podcast here! Starts & Sits
DFS Convictions:
Davante Adams (DK: 7,900) (8,100)
This price is dirt cheap for Davante Adams. We don't get to see him priced below 8k too often. Through the first 3 weeks, Adams leads the league in targets with 34 and has a monster 38% market share of the team's targets. Since that week 1 disaster, Aaron Rogers has been force-feeding the ball to Adams. On top of this, Adams faces a Steeler defense who has given up the 5th most fantasy points to wide receivers. It is still early, but I want to make getting to Davante a priority in my cash lineup, and he is obviously a great GPP play.
Chuba Hubbard (DK: 5,900) (FD: 6,300)
With CMC out, Chuba Hubbard is expected to take over as the lead back in Carolina. When McCaffery went out last week, Hubbard played 55% of the snaps compared to just 15% for Royce Freeman. Based on this, I think we can expect about 65-70% of snaps going to Hubbard. Hubbard was the 4th round draft pick of the Panthers and was a stud in college at Oklahoma State. This is not the best matchup for Hubbard as the Cowboys defense has been pretty good against running backs this year. However, I believe Hubbard could be in for a big week because of his capability through the passing game. If the Cowboys get up early in this game, we could have Sam Darnold throw the ball a lot, leading to a few check-downs to Hubbard. On a full PPR site like DraftKings, those can add up quite a bit. This play is ultimately about price, role, and volume, which are all favorable this week.
Jalen Hurts (DK: 6,900) (FD: 7,900)
Jalen should be very low owned coming off his Monday night performance that everyone saw on national television. While he didn't look that good, he did get there in garbage time with 25 DK points. I am willing to go back to him this week because of his juicy matchup with this Chiefs defense. This Kansas City defense has just flat-out been horrible so far this year. They are a bottom third defense in the league in many statistical categories in pass-and-run games. They are specifically giving up the 2nd most fantasy points to quarterbacks on the year. We should see a high-scoring game with the Chiefs getting up early, which will force Hurts to drop back a ton. You can very easily stack Hurts up with Devonta Smith (who I also like this week) and then bring it back with whichever one of the Chief studs you prefer.
Bedside Bets:
Chase Edmonds Over 33.5 receiving yards (-114)
The Cardinals are playing the Rams this week in they are the underdogs on the road in a high total game. I don't see the Arizona defense stopping this high-powered LA offense which would lead to the perfect game script for Chase Edmonds. Edmonds is already 60% of snaps on the year and is the clear passing down back for Arizona in a game where they should throw a ton. In the last two games, he has 5, and 8 targets on 22 and 16 routes run. He is averaging 40 yards a game receiving. If we get a game where the Cardinals are trailing and having to chase the Rams, Edmonds should easily get the 34 yards.
David Montgomery Anytime TD (+120)
David Montgomery gets a dream matchup in the Lions this week. They have allowed 6 TD on the year to running backs. The Bears also have a mess at the QB position with Matt Nagy not naming a starter for the game yet. So the Bears need to rely heavily on Montgomery this week in a favorable matchup both on the ground and receiving game with him being able to get in the box one time at least.
Jalen Hurts Over 1.5 passing TD (+110)
My reasoning for this bet is very much the same as why I like Hurts on Draftkings this week, as I explained in the DFS portion of the article. This game should force him to throw the ball a lot against a Chiefs secondary that has given up 5 touchdowns in the last two weeks. He's thrown for 2 TDs in 2 of the 3 games this year, with one being the super low-scoring game against the 49ers. So I feel very confident that Hurts will have an excellent game through the air this week.
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