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Sept. 18, 2021

Week 2 DFS Convictions and Bedside Bets

Week 2 DFS Convictions and Bedside Bets

Week 2 DFS Convictions and Bedside Bets

Fellow dudes, week 2 is here! Last week was less than ideal on DraftKings and I was pretty much breakeven betting overall. To be completely transparent, I made mistakes last week in my main cash lineup, and it was probably my worst day ever in 5+ years of playing NFL DFS. I am ready for a big bounce back in week 2. With that being said, I hope you guys enjoy the article, and like a Phoenix, I will rise. Let's get that bread!     

DFS Convictions:

CeeDee Lamb (DK:6,400) (FD: 6,800) 

     This Chargers Cowboys game is one of the games I'm looking forward to the most on Sunday. The game has the highest total on the board this week at 55. This could be similar to last week for the Cowboys, where Dak threw the ball 58 times. I could see him getting above 50 attempts in this game, too, which bodes well for Lamb. Lamb is just flat out too cheap on DraftKings with the PPR format. He received 15 targets last week and should see at least double-digit targets as well this week. I love CeeDee this week in cash games, and he will be a core piece of my stacks. 

Javonte Williams (DK: 4,400) (FD: 5,500)

     Both Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon split the snaps for the Broncos last week. Both were at 50% of snaps and are part of a true timeshare. For this reason alone, I don't think Williams is part of the cash game discussion this week, but I do believe he is an excellent play in tournaments at this price tag. He gets a matchup against the Jaguars, who gave up 160 yards on the ground last week to the Texans. If the Broncos get up in this game early, we could see a steady dose of Williams and Gordon. The reason I like Williams more is because of the $1,500 discount from MGIII. At low ownership, a cheap price tag, and in a great matchup, I believe Williams could be a key piece to a great day in tournaments on Sunday. 

Nick Chubb (DK: 7,800) (FD: 8,400)

     I'll be honest I am not the biggest Nick Chubb fan, and I rarely roster him in DFS, but this week I am all aboard the Chubb train in GPP's. While I am writing this, I see a below 8% ownership which is too low for the matchup he gets this week vs. the Texans. The Browns are favored 13 points and are a -700 favorite on the money line with a team total over 30. I could see the Browns getting up early and just feeding their two running backs the rest of the game. So as of right now, it looks like Nick Chubb will be getting overlooked this week, but I will be playing him in my GPP lineups. 

Bedside Bets: 

Chargers -3.5 (-105)

     In full transparency, I bet this earlier in the week when the line was still at -3. However, I still like the bet at -3.5. The Chargers are coming off a big road win over a tough Washington defense and now come back home to face a Dallas defense that just lost Demarcus Lawrence. While I think Dallas will succeed on offense, I don't see how they stop the Chargers on offense either. Ultimately,  the offenses on both teams are relatively close in talent. However, the Chargers have a way better defense. Because of this advantage, the Chargers should be able to cover the -3.5 at home. 

Cincinnati Bengals @ Chicago Bears Over 44.5 (-110)

     I know this may seem like an ugly game between two average football teams, but this number on the total just feels a little too low to me. Neither one of these defenses impressed me last week, especially the Chicago secondary. This is a spot where I think Joe Burrow should be able to move the ball through the air. While I know the Bear's offense didn't look great, this is a much better matchup for them. I am confident in the Bengals' ability to put up points here, and if we can get 17-20 from the Bears, this game should go over the total at 44.5. 

Dak Prescott Over 39.5 pass attempts (-105)

     I have mentioned in this article before how much I love this game for offense. I also believe this is a game where the Chargers are up most of the game, which could lead to the Cowboys needing to pass the ball quite a bit. We saw last week how the Cowboys are very willing to abandon the run and just let Dak throw to his weapons in Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb. Going back to the 5 games Dak played last year, he threw for over this number 3 times, was right at 39 once, and was on pace to pass the number in the game he got hurt. When you consider he threw almost 60 times last week, this is a prop that I think he passes with ease. 

 

Good luck guys see you next week, check out the Fantasy Football Dudes every Monday and Thursday wherever you listen to podcasts. The Fantasy Football Dudes

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