Week 17 DFS Convictions and Bedside Bets
Hey guys! Hope you all had a great Christmas and Happy New Year! Let's start 2022 off with a bang with a huge week 17. We have a massive 14 game slate but not many exciting games. However, there are a couple I really like and want to target those heavily and pick off the good pieces in the other ones. I only have two bets this week because not many player props were out, and I didn't want to force a third that I didn't love. Good luck this week, and let's go make some money! We have our Draft Kings contest at the end.
Patrick Mahomes (DK: 7,800)
For some reason, this Chiefs Bengals game is projecting for lower ownership than I initially thought it would. In my opinion, it's a nice spot to target in tournaments, and that starts with Mahomes. Recently, the Bengals have been a pretty good matchup for QBs while much tougher against the run. You can pair Mahomes with Travis Kelce (7,300) or Tyreek Hill (8,300). I also like using Byron Pringle (4,100) in those stacks as an excellent value piece playing a ton, and Mahomes is trusting right now. You can bring the stacks back with any of Ja'Marr Chase (7,600), Tee Higgins (6,900), or Joe Mixon (7,500).
David Montgomery (DK: 6,500)
David Montgomery will be popular this week, and for a good reason. He gets a great matchup against the Giants, is a home favorite, and has been getting a ton of work. For the last two weeks, Montgomery has received 18 and 21 carries while playing over 70% snaps. On top of that work, he has also had over 6 targets every game the last four weeks. With Andy Dalton starting this week, the Bears should just give Montgomery all the work he can handle in both the run and pass game and is one of my favorite running backs this week. He will most likely be in my cash lineup and will probably have him in tournaments too.
D'Andre Swift (DK: 6,000)
D'Andre Swift is coming back this week after being out for a while, and he is in a phenomenal spot. After being out, I was initially concerned with his workload, but it doesn't make sense for him to play if he's not getting a full workload. His coach also spoke highly about him this week and mentioned how fresh he's looked compared to everyone else this late in the season. I hope he doesn't become too popular because I love him for tournaments this week. All year, the Seahawks have been one of the best matchups for running backs, and I want to keep picking on them. This week, there are many good running back plays, and Swift is one of my favorites for tournaments.
Sony Michel Anytime TD (+100)
This is pretty good value for a running back on a team favored by 5.5 against a Baltimore team that has given up points in bunches the last few weeks. Darrell Henderson was put on IR, and Cam Akers isn't expected to play, leaving Michel as the lone running back for the Rams. He should get all the work, and they should rely on him around the goal line, giving him a few opportunities to score a touchdown.
Ronald Jones Over 67.5 rushing yards (-116)
This number just seems too low to me for a running back who saw 20 carries last week in a matchup against the Jets, who have given up 118 rushing yards a game to running backs this year. The Jets have allowed 9 running backs to go over this number against them this year, and I expect Ronald Jones to be the 10th. The Bucs should get up early on this Jets team and just rely on Jones, and he should get over this number based on volume alone.
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