Week 12 DFS Convictions and Bedside Bets
Hey guys! I hope you all had a great Thanksgiving with your family and could also catch a little football. I will admit that I am not as locked in as I usually am this week with the holiday. But I did my best to get this article out for you. This is such an ugly week of games with not many exciting games, so more than ever, I want to stick to players in roles that I know are secure. Good luck this week, and let's go make some money this weekend!
Tom Brady (DK: 7,600)
I usually write up cheaper quarterbacks for this article because I like the flexibility it gives you in GPP's to pay up for other players outside of your stack. There isn't much on the cheaper end besides Cam Newton (who will be very popular). This leads me to just want to stack the offense that I know will produce. This puts Tom Brady stacks very much in play for me. He isn't cheap but has an easy stacking partner in Chris Godwin (7,000) and Mike Evans (7,200). I also think for value you could add the super cheap Breshad Perriman (3,000), who was open a couple of times on deep balls last week. Tom Brady should be able to have plenty of success through the air this week. My favorite bring back in this stack would be Michael Pittman (5,600), who is too cheap this week in an offense who could play from behind. Playing Tom Brady stacks isn't the cheapest but is an offense I feel very confident in.
James Robinson (DK: 6,200)
James Robinson has been hurt the last couple of weeks, but his workload seems to be increasing as he gets healthier every week. This week, he gets an excellent matchup against the Falcons, who give up the 4th most fantasy points this season and the 5th most over the last 4 weeks. It isn't the easiest thing to have confidence in the Jaguars' offense, but I just want to play the matchup here with Robinson. Of course, it makes it easier that he is only 6,200, and the Jags should keep this game competitive, allowing them to feed James Robinson.
Diontae Johnson (DK: 6,600)
Diontae Johnson is one of my favorite receivers because he has the unique mix of a high floor and decent upside. He has had 10+ targets in every week but two and has 13 in 4 of the last 5 games he's played in, along with flashing some touchdown upside as well. It's not the best matchup against the Bengals, but this is a game where the Steelers could have to throw the ball a decent amount, leading to a massive number of targets for Johnson. Johnson will most likely be popular, but I like him at the cheap price tag. I really like the idea of the second stack of Ja'Marr Chase (7,300), who had a big day the last time these two teams played.
Carson Wentz Over 1.5 TD passes (-105)
When placing this bet, I am banking on the Colts playing from behind in this game against Tampa Bay. If Tampa can get up early then, Carson Wentz should have to throw all game, and if he does that, I think he can throw for two touchdowns. I lean that this game goes over, so we should have plenty of scoring. The way that this bet can go wrong fast is if the Colts can keep it close and they can run the ball with Jonathan Taylor the whole game, but I feel good about Tampa Bay getting ahead early and focusing on stopping the run.
Parlay: Christian McCaffery and Najee Harris to both have any time TD (+224)
Both guys are great spots this week to score a touchdown. Najee Harris gets a Bengals defense that has given up 10 touchdowns on the season to running backs. Christian McCaffery is in a good matchup against the Dolphins and has had good use in both run and pass games. Last week he played 88% of the snaps and had 18 touches. So he should be able to get into the box in this matchup. Both of these guys' odds to score are fairly high already, so I like parlaying them together for more value.
Dontrell Hilliard Over 22.5 receiving yards (-110)
The Tennessee Titans will not have much on offense this week as AJ Brown was ruled out with Jeremy McNichols. Last week Hilliard had 8 catches on 10 targets for 47 yards. Tannehill may not have much time in the pocket against this good Pats defense, and he should look to dump it down to his running backs as much as he can. This number seems too low for the amount of volume Hilliard could have in the passing game, and I feel very good about him hitting this number.
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