Week 11 DFS Convictions and Beside Bets
Hey guys! In full transparency, last week was not the best week for me. I did go 2-1 on the bets, but DFS was not great. Najee Harris hurt me last week, but it would have been a much better week for me if he had got a touchdown. It has not been the best NFL season for me on DraftKings, but I will do my best to finish this 2nd half of the season strong. It starts this week, and I am ready to go. Good luck this week, and let's go make some money!
DFS Convictions
Joe Burrow (DK: 6,600)
I love Joe Burrow this week. He was my start in season long on the pod, and I love him equally as much on DraftKings this week. He has a fair price at 6,600 and is set up for a big game in this matchup against the Raiders. The Raiders have given up the 4th most fantasy points to quarterbacks over the last 4 weeks and in those games have given up 10 passing touchdowns and over 1,000 yards. Last week, Joe Burrow had the bye to reset after his horrible game against the Browns, and he should have a bounce-back game. He is showing low ownership right now, and I love his stacking partners in Ja'Marr Chase (7,200) and Tee Higgins (5,400). There are also good bring backs to the stack in Hunter Renfrow (5,800) and Darren Waller (6,100). I am confident that I will have a Joe Burrow stack in my single-entry GPP team.
Nick Chubb (DK: 7,800)
Running back was the most challenging position for me to write up this week. There's a lot of good plays but not a ton of great plays, and a lot of these good plays are obvious. If CEH is out, Darrell Williams is good, Myles Gaskin, AJ Dillon, James Conner, and the obvious spend up on Christian McCaffrey. One guy who I think could go under the radar is Nick Chubb coming off the COVID list. He's a great GPP pivot off CMC, and he's in a great matchup against the Lions. With Hunt still out, he should get a ton of work, see up to 20 touches, and have a great opportunity to get a touchdown in a game where the Browns are favored by 11.5 points. As of writing this, he is projecting a little over 10% ownership. If I play Chubb, I will pair him with the Browns' defense (3,100) and correlate the two.
Michael Gallup (DK: 4,200)
I have Michael Gallup as a conviction play because of how cheap he is with a prominent role in the Cowboys' offense in this excellent game environment against the Chiefs. In his first game back from injury, he stepped in and played 55% of snaps and had 5 targets. If it had been a closer game, both of those numbers would have been elevated. After another week of practice, Gallup should be full go, and I love him as a cheap attachment to this 56.5 total. He works in stacks with Dak Prescott, as a cheap bring back in a Patrick Mahomes stack, or as a secondary stack with Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, or Darrell Williams. This is a game that I want to have a lot of exposure to in both cash games, and GPP and Michael Gallup is a cheap way to do so.
Bedside Bets
Patrick Mahomes Over 2.5 Passing TD (+145)
Dak Prescott Over 2.5 Passing TD (+127)
These two numbers stood out to me right away when I went to look at the player props. I am super high on this game on the DFS side and the bets side and love these two bets. They are correlated, and if we get the shootout, I think both quarterbacks will have to pass the ball to keep up with each other. Patrick Mahomes finally looked like himself last game, and I think he carries that momentum into this week. Mahomes took what the defense gave him early in the game and then started to air it out later in the game. With success he found last week, he should have a similar strategy this week, even in a matchup against a relatively tough Dallas defense.
On the other hand, Dak Prescott should be able to do whatever he wants against this Chiefs passing defense that has given up the 7th most touchdown passes this season. Dak has thrown for at least 3 touchdowns in 5 of the 8 games he's played and would have thrown for 3 last week if it wasn't such a blowout. I can't wait to watch this game, and this is two of my favorite ways to attack it from the betting side. I will bet both separately but will also sprinkle a little bit on these together in a parlay.
Christian McCaffrey Over 5.5 Receptions (+118)
Cam Newton is most likely the starting QB for the Panthers this week, which means we could see quite a bit of dump downs to CMC. Last week CMC had 10 receptions and had gone over 5.5 receptions in 3 of 5 games this year, and in one of the games he didn't, he had 5 receptions. Last year in New England, Cam Newton's average depth of each throw was only 6.8 yards which means he was constantly throwing short passes, and James White was also their 3rd leading receiver last year. This should bode well for CMC as Newton will look for him quite a bit with short-yardage high percentage targets. I really like McCaffrey's chances of getting those 6 catches this week to cash this bet.
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