Week 10 DFS Convictions and Beside Bets
Hey guys! Last week was not the greatest week for me, but I am ready to bounce back on Sunday. I have yet to have that massive week on both the DFS side and the bets side. I really believe I am getting close and will do my best to make it this week. Please pay attention to the news as there could be injuries that will open some value on DraftKings. Good luck this week, and let's go make some money!
DFS Convictions
Najee Harris (DK:7,900)
This is just such a great matchup for Najee Harris that I can't pass. Full disclosure that he will be very popular but is also an excellent play. The Lions give up the 2nd most fantasy points to running backs, and the Steelers rely on Harris to do everything for them. In the last 4 games, Harris has had over 25+ touchdowns and has a touchdown in each of those games. Ultimately this price on him is too low with the volume he gets and this matchup. There is a chance Harris does come in lower owned with all the other great running back plays around him. I will most likely have him in my cash team and heavily consider him in my GPP teams.
DK Metcalf (DK: 6,800)
Assuming Russell Wilson is playing DK Metcalf is one of my favorite wide receivers on the slate. He is way too cheap and is priced for Geno playing and not Russ. We were usually seeing him priced in the high 7k or low 8k with Wilson healthy. While Green Bay isn't the easiest matchup, Metcalf has proved that he can succeed in any matchup. My favorite part about this play is that he is projecting for less than 10% ownership. I don't mind playing Aaron Jones or Davante Adams on the other side for a secondary stack. I also don't hate the idea of just stacking DK with Russ also and fully stacking the game. I am confident that DK will be one of my highest-owned receivers this week and be in my main GPP single entry team.
D'Ernest Johnson (DK: 4,700)
If Nick Chubb ends up missing this week, there is no doubt in my mind that Johnson will end up being the most popular player on DraftKings this week. However, I decided to write him up anyway because I will be locking him into every lineup I make. The value he presents at 4,700 is too much to ignore and lets me fit in with the other more expensive guys I want to play. The last time both Chubb and Hunt were out, Johnson had 168 total yards and touchdown against a solid Denver defense. So I understand the merit of fading him in a tough matchup against New England and with almost 50% projected ownership. Still, I will be doing the opposite and locking him into every GPP lineup and, obviously, my primary cash team.
Bedside Bets
Pat Freiermuth Over 3.5 receptions (+102)
The Steelers will play this week without Chase Claypool in addition to Juju Smith-Schuster. Over the last three weeks, Pat Freiermuth's role in the Steelers offense has taken a considerable jump. He has 7,7,6 targets in the previous 3 games and has 4+ catches in those games. With Claypool out this week, his role could increase even more. I really like him to get those 4 catches and will gladly bet this prop at plus money.
Parlay: Dalvin Cook, Jonathan Taylor, Najee Harris all to score TD (+257)
This is my first time giving out a parlay in this article but I have been betting these touchdowns parlays personally. I really like all three of these guys to get in the box this week. Dalvin Cook gets a great matchup against the Chargers, who are willing to let teams run the ball. Najee Harris also gets a great matchup against the Lions, and the steelers rely on him in the red zone. Finally, Jonathan Taylor should get it done here in a game they are favored by double digits. All 3 of the teams these guys are facing are top 10 in touchdowns allowed, with all of them giving up at least 8 touchdowns on the year to running backs.
Patrick Mahomes Over 2.5 Passing TD (+170)
I just can't help myself when it comes to Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs. I have a hard time believing that this offense is broken, and I think we will see an offensive explosion soon from them. This could very well be the game on Sunday night football. In the first 4 games, Mahomes threw for 3+ touchdowns but hasn't gone over 2 since. I think Mahomes comes out with something to prove in this game against a beatable Las Vegas secondary. There are not many numbers to back this bet up, but this is more of a gut feel, and at this price, I am willing to go with my gut.
