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Sept. 10, 2021

Week 1 DFS Convictions and Bedside Bets

Week 1 DFS Convictions and Bedside Bets

                                   Week 1 DFS Convictions and Bedside Bets

        NFL is back, and I couldn't be more excited about it!!! I play DFS and bet on almost all the sports, but nothing else compares to the NFL. There's nothing better than getting up early on a Sunday morning to work on lineups, head to church, and then come home and watch football all day long. I can't wait to do that on repeat for the next 18 Sundays. I have been playing DFS for over 5 years now but have recently got more into sports betting, and I'm excited to expand my knowledge and give more takes in that space. Because of that, I have decided to focus on both DFS and sports betting in this article. I will usually give about 2-3 DFS plays that I feel strongly about and will be playing in my lineups. And then another 2-3 bets that I have already placed for Sunday. This is just a reminder that I play almost exclusively on DraftKings, and because I live in California, I must use offshore sportsbooks. 

DFS Convictions:

Marquez Callaway (DK: 3,400) (FD: 5,200)

This price is just flat out too low for Callaway this week. Most of the time in DFS, we are just looking for opportunity and workload, which should be there for him this week against the Packers. He is basically their #1 receiver at this point, with Michael Thomas on the PUP list and Tre'Quan Smith questionable for this week after missing most of training camp with his injury. Jameis Winston will want to move the ball down the field, and Callaway should be his man. Now Callaway will be extremely popular and is an absolute must-play in cash games, but I think you can fade him in tournaments at ownership. 

Calvin Ridley (DK: 7,900) (FD: 8,100)

I really believe this Eagles/Falcons game could turn into a shootout this week with two subpar defenses. If the Falcons put up lots of points this week, Calvin Ridley should be a massive part of this. With the departure of Julio Jones, Ridley will be the #1 guy for Matt Ryan, and I expect him to take full advantage of that starting with this week. In the 7 games that Julio missed last year, Ridley averaged 109 yards and 7 catches per game. With the price on Ridley and many people looking to pay up for RB this week, I don't think he will be too popular either. I will be running lots of stacks from this game, and Ridley will be a core piece for me in all of them. 

Raheem Mostert (DK: 5,800) (FD: 6,100)

Raheem Mostert was one of my starts for season-long on the podcast this week. I'm going to double down this week in DFS too. This Lions defense was the worst in the league last year against the RB position, and I don't see that changing this year. The Niners are favored in this game, and I could see a game script where they run the ball a ton. While I do think Sermon will cut into the workload of Mostert, I also believe Mostert can get there in 15-18 touches. He is one of the most explosive and fastest guys in the NFL, and I really think he can break off one of his 80-yard touchdown runs in this game. The best part of Mostert, he isn't very expensive at 5,800 and is projecting for less than 10% ownership. He is a perfect GPP play in week 1 in a great matchup who has the upside to help you win a tournament. 

Bedside Bets: 

Jaguars -3 (-120)

As a Jaguars fan, I have tried my best to not get too excited for this year, but it is hard not to love this matchup for Trevor Lawrence's first week in the NFL. He gets a Texans defense that projects to be one of the worst in the NFL this year. It is an excellent matchup for James Robinson as well. If the Jags defense can contain Tyrod Taylor on the ground, I don't see him hurting them much through the air. This is a game that the Jaguars have to win, and I think they win by a touchdown to cover the spread behind a big debut from Trevor Lawrence and the Jags offense. 

Eagles vs. Falcons Over 48.5

In the DFS portion of the article, I highlighted how much I like this game, which naturally leads me to want the over at 48.5. Both defenses were two of the worst in the league last year against the pass, while the Falcons defense was one of the friendliest to rushing QBs. This sets up well for Jalen Hurts. While he isn't the best passer in the world, he is good enough to get the job done and should be able to have a good game on the ground. On the other side, the Falcons should move the ball against the Eagles' defense on land and air. This game will be an offensive shootout which has me feel very strongly about the over 48.5. 

Patrick Mahomes Over 2.5 Passing TD (+100)

One of the best games of Week 1 should be the Browns/Chiefs game. The game has a total of 54.5, with the Chiefs having a team total of 30.5. That is a high number for a team against a pretty good Cleveland defense, but I don't disagree. The strength of that Cleveland defense is against the run, while towards the end of last season, they struggled against the pass. While they addressed this need in the offseason, it is hard to tell how soon those new additions will gel. This plays right into the hands of Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes. The chiefs will need to throw the ball early and often here, and I expect a big day from the KC passing attack. Mahomes should be able to get those 3 touchdowns this week and at plus money. I really like this bet. 

 

Let's all have a great week 1! Hopefully, we all have a little bit more money in our accounts this time next week! Happy Football!!!

 

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Also, don't miss this week's podcast, wherever you listen to podcasts!

Kickoff, Starts, and Sits show