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Jan. 2, 2021

New Years Core and Convictions week 17

Happy New Year! I hope you guys all had a great holiday as we move into another year. I hope we can start 2021 with a bang on Sunday. Week 17 of NFL is always a different animal as news is constantly pouring in, and we sometimes we will not know who is playing for some teams until in actives are released. We also need to be aware of motivations for both teams and individual players. We do not have all the news as I am writing this, but I do feel good about a few plays at this point.  

Per the usual format, I am going to divide this article into two sections. The first section will be my cash core plays. The second section will be my GPP conviction plays. Cash games are considered as 50/50s, double-ups, and head to heads. These are games where you are only trying to double up your money. In these contests, you want to play guys who have good median projections and are considered “safer” plays or have a high floor. You should not worry about ownership in cash games as it does not matter where you finish if you are in the top half. GPP’s or tournaments are contests where a much lower portion of the field gets paid. These contests usually pay the top 20-25% of the field. The higher you finish, the more money you will make. In GPP’s, you want to find plays with high upside and lower ownership that can vault you to the top of the leaderboard. In full transparency, I am mostly a cash game player with most of my volume being played in those contests, but I do play single entry and 3 max tournaments also. I also mostly play on DraftKings and do not play much on FanDuel. I plan to give 3 cash cores that I think are strong plays for cash games, and my conviction plays for GPPs. 

Cash Cores: 

Davante Adams (DK: 9,200) (FD: 9,300)

No matter what news we get over the next day or so, I can guarantee that Davante Adams will be the first guy I put into my cash lineup. He is expensive, but we should have plenty of value to be able to afford him. If the Packers beat the Bears, they will clinch the 1 seed, so you know they will go all out to win this game. On the flip side, the Bears are in a must-win game to get into the playoffs, so I am not as worried about a blowout here. It is a good matchup for Adams as the bears are giving up the 9th most fantasy points to wide receivers the last 4 weeks, but honestly, with someone like Davante, I could care less about the matchup. We know he will get the volume, and Aaron Rogers will look at him in the red zone. At this point, we know what Davante is going to give you, and in a slate, with so much uncertainty, I think it is important to lock Davante into your cash lineup. 

Derrick Henry (DK: 9,400) (FD: 10,200)

Right after I put Davante into my cash lineup, the next guy I will put into it is Derrick Henry. I am not a Henry guy at all, but it is just so hard to ignore what he is doing right now and the spot he is in this week. If the Titans win this game, they will win the AFC South, which means they should have plenty of motivation to go all out in this game. Plus, they play the Texans, who are right up there with the worst defense in the NFL at this point. The Texans are the best matchup for running backs as they are 1st in fantasy points allowed and are dead last in DVOA against the run. This spot is too good to get away from Henry, and I think he ends this season with a bang. 

Ty Montgomery (DK: 4,000) (FD: 4.500)

If we are going to start our lineup with both Davante and Henry, we will need some serious value, and the first place I want to look is Ty Montgomery. On Friday, it was confirmed that Alvin Kamara would miss the game against the Panthers with a positive COVID test, and then early Saturday morning, we got the news that all the rest of the Saints running backs were ruled out due to contact tracing. The Saints are now going to move Montgomery from receiver to running back, where he has played in the past. Montgomery should get at least 10-12 carries and is a capable pass-catcher out of the backfield. That should be plenty good enough at the minimum price tag on both sites. Montgomery is the value I want to start my cash games with as many studs as I can put into my lineup.

 

Before we get into my GPP convictions, I want to mention that we are running a small listener league contest on DraftKings this week. It is a 20 entry contest with a 5 dollar entry. The top 5 people will get paid. Join in, and let's have some fun. 

Here is the link to the contest Dude League DFS

 

GPP Convictions:

Jonathan Taylor (DK: 7,400) (FD: 8,400)

This week, most people will probably pay up for Derrick Henry this week and then use a couple of value running backs, which could leave some of the mid to upper tier running backs under-owned. My favorite in that range is Jonathan Taylor in an awesome matchup against the Jaguars. In the last 4 weeks, the Jags are giving up the 3rd most fantasy points to running backs, which should bode well for Taylor this week. It is concerning that Taylor is only getting 65% of the snaps, but I think it is mitigated by him being the goal line back. The colts are favored by -14.5 in a game where they must win, leading to Taylor getting more carries as the Colts close the game out. On top of all this, Taylor is 84 yards shy of 1,000 on the season. He and his coaches have talked about how important it is for him to reach that milestone. Taylor is in a perfect spot this week, and he will be someone I have in my tournament lineup this week. 

Justin Jefferson (DK: 7,600) (FD: 8,000)

I am going back to another rookie with my second conviction play in Justin Jefferson. The Vikings play the Lions this week in a game that does not mean anything for either team but is one of the highest total games on the week at 54. If all the starters play for the Vikings, I love him this week. He has gotten 12,8,11, 10 targets in the last 4 weeks, and the Lions are among the best matchups for wide receivers. Jefferson is really close to setting some rookie records, which should give him plenty of motivation. He is 44 yards shy of breaking Randy Moss’ Vikings rookie record for receiving yards in a season. He is also 111 yards shy of Anquan Boldin's record for receiving yards for a rookie in a season. You can be sure the Vikings are aware of this, and I bet they try and get him the records. Jefferson could be in for an explosion game this week. 

 

I will leave it at 2 GPP conviction plays this week because, honestly, I do not feel great about it anymore at this point. This week is more information-driven than any other week so make sure to be watching the news. I look at this week as very stars and scrubs. In both cash and GPPs, I want to pay up for the studs and fill in with the value. Good luck this week, and I hope we can end the regular season on a good note. Also, do not forget to join the pod listener league on DraftKings this week!

Dude League DFS